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Photovoltaic industry to meet again the sun |
Solar photovoltaic (pv) seems to have become the capital market not old legend, all kinds of New Deal frequently attack. Yesterday, the media reported that the "twelfth five-year" solar photovoltaic industry development planning (draft) "(hereinafter referred to as" planning "exposure draft) before and after October this year, photovoltaic giants sphere of influence will also appear new pattern. To this, the personage inside course of study the layout of the secondary market strategy is given.
policy
Photovoltaic power generation capacity 10 gigawatts (gw)
Yesterday, media reports, the current content of the "planning" exposure draft has been basically finalized, will perform before, during, and after National Day. "Planning", according to the draft in 2015, the scale of photovoltaic power generation capacity in China to achieve 10 gw, and last year, China's installed capacity is less than 500 mw. This means that in the next few years, our country each year gw pv capacity will reach 2.
Market of the biggest concerns of photovoltaic power generation cost objectives, plans to 2015, photovoltaic system costs down to 15000 RMB/KW, power generation costs down to 0.8 yuan/KWH, distribution side "parity" online; By 2020, the system costs down to 10000 RMB/KW, generating cost is 0.6 yuan/KWH, realized in power generation side "parity" online.
"Planning" exposure draft attention to another bright spot is that thin film cells of, put forward will focus during the 12th five-year development of amorphous and microcrystalline laminated and combining the multi-junction thin-film batteries. In order to reduce the thin-film batteries light attenuation, encourage enterprises to research and development more than 5.5 generation of large area high efficiency silicon thin-film batteries, developing flexible silicon thin film solar cell volume of continuous production process, etc.
meaning
To promote industry achieve scale development
For the meaning of "planning" exposure draft, the sincere investment Huang Daolin think chief investment officer, compared with the installed capacity in the world's leading wind power, the development of photovoltaic power generation in China is still in its infancy, the level of development is far behind the developed countries such as Germany, Spain, is the "short board" of new energy power generation industry in China, the huge space for development.
Cic advisory new energy industry researcher Shen Hongwen believes that the meaning of "planning" for the photovoltaic industry is embodied in the following aspects: one is put forward the photovoltaic industry development goals, up to 10 gw of installed capacity to boost market confidence in the photovoltaic industry. The rooftop solar power station helped to distributed photovoltaic power plant development. Second, the specification the pv industry development environment. "Planning" exposure draft on several aspects of the photovoltaic industry put forward the specific requirements, will be conducive to the healthy development of photovoltaic industry. 3 it is provides a guidance for the technology development of photovoltaic industry direction. At the same time, in the development of polysilicon technology thin-film batteries has been seriously, is helpful to promote the all-round development of photovoltaic technology.
Photovoltaic industry is lack of the boom of industry, the European market to cut subsidies, as well as the domestic market has not yet been fully start factors such as the domestic photovoltaic industry hard. Shen Hongwen think, under the stimulation of "planning" exposure draft, the photovoltaic industry again to get the attention of the capital market and promoting, industry leading enterprises will benefit in the long run.
strategy
Mining investment opportunity along the industry chain
Compared to many industry, photovoltaic solar energy industry has obvious industry chain. Therefore, the personage inside course of study analyzes from the Angle of industry chain, to explore investment opportunities in the capital markets.
> > the upstream
Chance of a polysilicon leading enterprises
Shen Hongwen thinks, upstream polysilicon industry concentration will gradually increase, cost advantage and scale advantage role increasingly obvious, leading enterprises have a larger investment opportunities.
Datong securities investment advisory FuYong her believe that in the short term, crystalline silicon cells in photovoltaic industry will still occupied the main position. Although in the first half of this year global pv demand is not prosperous, polysilicon prices fell sharply, close to historic lows, but this is mainly due to the stagnation of Germany and Italy, led by the European market of installed.
Have stabilised in the second half of the term, European policy, accompanied by the third quarter of the season, polysilicon prices have stabilized rebound. Although pv demand has not been a significant signs of improvement, but expectations have led to the downstream firms began to gradually increase the polysilicon inventories, this also is expected to lead to polysilicon prices continue to rose slightly. If the pv demand began to improve, the polysilicon prices are expected to continue to rise. As a result, the corresponding polycrystalline material may have a certain short-term opportunities, such as electricity, sichuan leshan for energy.
> > the middle and lower reaches of
Photovoltaic modules and power go hand in hand
Shen Hongwen thinks, middle reaches of the photovoltaic component manufacturing is given priority to with polysilicon technology, subdivision industry involved in silicon wafer processing, photovoltaic battery manufacture, photovoltaic modules installed, and many other aspects. For photovoltaic components manufacturers, the increase in demand will further boost the growth of its performance. Because of the domestic photovoltaic module manufacturer mainly on the market in the United States, and in domestic listed many auxiliary for smaller parts production enterprises, so you can focus on is engaged in the photovoltaic auxiliary components and parts production enterprises.
FuYong her pointed out that the crystalline silicon components and auxiliary materials in summary is "five second". "Big five" refers to the flat glass, EVA film, the back, the aluminum box and junction box, "the second" refers to the cells in connection with welding belt, packaging aluminum frame with silica gel. For now, the main opportunities exist in flat glass, EVA film, back these three aspects. According to the global pv market demand this year 20 gw measure, EVA film, flat glass and back the market capacity of up to 4.6 billion, 5.1 billion and 5.1 billion yuan respectively. So the corresponding auxiliary materials enterprises, such as show strong stake, southeast, east of material science and technology are concerned. In addition, the integration of industrial chain leading enterprises also need to focus on, such as the haitong group, super solar, century billion power etc.
In addition, Shen Hongwen pointed out, is located in the downstream of the industrial chain of photovoltaic power station operators also has good investment opportunities. Silver xu-dong sun leaps forward finance news analyst thinks, from the point of the center daily news of had just finished disclosure, many listed companies are the construction of the photovoltaic power station in the future plan, such as the Oriental nison said as of the final report, is located in Slovakia's 2 mw power station and 4 mw power plant has been implemented in the UK the grid-connected power generation. In addition, sunflower, variety shares, such as spaceflight electromechanical also have plan.
other
Thin-film batteries waiting game
In view of the "planning" thin-film batteries specifically referred to in the paper, FuYong her pointed out that for photovoltaic thin-film batteries as leading the future there is a big space, but the short term may due to cost problem and difficult to become a leading technology. The investment opportunity more is to some policy or event driven opportunities. As the prophase of the renewable energy development "twelfth five-year" plan "put forward, in the next five years rooftop solar installed size of target is 3 million kw, the scale of up to 25 million kw in 2020, based on the 300000 kw growth of more than 80 times, account for half of solar power generation medium and long term goals. If the future for rooftop solar thin-film batteries applications to large-scale spread out, then the future thin-film batteries corresponding components will boost investment opportunities. Just now, this time to still need to wait
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